Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Bluefreeway; the bridge is out

Simon Chen has a nice (if you can call it nice) wrap-up of the day's events. Richard Webb, founder and CEO of Bluefreeway is out, as is the CFO Ken McDonnell. The share price is currently at 39 cents, back up from a low today of 26 cents, but even the offering of 76 cents a week and a half ago seems a distant and far-fetched dream now. A person who works at Bluefreeway swung by today and said they will be focusing on portfolio companies, and tagged a good deal of braggadocio on the end of it. I'm mad for a bit of defiance in the face of adversity, though it tends to carry more weight when your parent company has the cash to make good on the threats.

Best of luck to everyone affected by these developments, please feel free to share your experiences below or get in touch.

Twitter; the new talkback?

Twitter Logo

A good friend just asked me if I really thought Twitter was going to take off, and I guess around that are a host of questions on the value it offers to its users. Maki has some great thoughts on ways it adds value to its users (thanks to Jennifer Laycock for the link), but one thing that just occurred to me as my friend asked the question and I glanced at my laptop to see the conversations roll past is that it seems to operate the same way talk-back radio did (or does for those who still listen to radio).

My Dad pointed out to me years ago the things the talk-back guys were discussing were invariably the things that made newspaper headlines the next day. In the same fashion, the conversations on Twitter revolve around other newsworthy pieces of information. They may not make the front page of the New York Times, they may not even make the front page of the New York Times website, but they will invariably make it up on somebody's blog, read by any number of people from one to a million.

In this fashion, I love Shel Israel's notions of global neighbourhoods. I am not American but I am about as interested in the US election as a foreigner could be, and because of this I can discuss the goings on today in Florida with people actually State-side and engage in a discussion about it; I doubt there's an audience for US politics large enough on Australian talk-back radio to make it worth anybody's time to take the subject on. It also reminds me of something I think I read in The Black Swan, but I can't quite remember; you can have only three readers for your blog, but those readers are the presidents of America, China and Russia, your influence out-games the raw numbers...there's more there I think...

So with the understanding that a blog readership, no matter how small can have a significant impact on the (on and offline) world around the writer, and for a percentage of those posts to have origins in conversations on Twitter, then I think there is a role for it to play as a topic is started by The World™, discussed on Twitter, generating a blog about that discussion which incites further discussion and winds up any number of places. Or as James Governor ironically pointed out (via Marshall Kirkpatrick), if markets are conversations then Twitter is money.



*After-thought* I went back over to Twitter to think some more and saw a note from Loic about Seesmic. If Twitter is the start of a new talk-back, Seesmic is where it is going (additional thoughts on that as I get more into the service...)

Say "I love you" with...a pink iPod?

Pink iPod NanoI receive Apple's regular newsletters pointing me to all manner of wares available in their store pretty regularly. I haven't unsubscribed, and I don't really know why. I'm not big on impulse purchases and I read enough to be well aware when a new product has arrived or is at least about to. On top of that, while I'm completely trading in traditional notions of gender stereotypes, as a guy I do not want a pink iPod. I'd be interested to know if women received a newsletter pushing a blue or black iPod for their male counterparts, but I somehow doubt it.

The iPod itself is a hard sell as a Valentine's Day gift, one that screams "Holy shit, I'd better get them something!" For anyone who has taken this option and is now reading this thinking a grave mistake has been made, take these helpful tips:

  1. When you order it, get it engraved (Apple do this for free via their online store, it takes less than a week to arrive)

  2. Open it up.

  3. Pre-load it with:

    1. Songs you know your partner loves or have significance in your relationship

    2. Photos of the two of you, your friends, family members, etc.

    3. TV shows you know they love (you'll be surprised how clear the iPod screen is)



  4. Buy them a decent pair of headphones as well, as the iPod ones won't last long; I recommend these from Seinheiser, roughly AU$80 and a great investment 18 months running)

  5. An optional extra is the Nike add-ons for those with particularly sporty partners, be careful this doesn't get turned into a suggestion you think your partner needs to lose a few pounds - this slippery slope is harder to navigate than you think it is.


As a complete aside, I just unsubscribed from the Apple newsletter. Upon reading my opening paragraph, what choice did I have? Now in my sights: Border's, Go Daddy, eBay. How many newsletters do you receive which you have no intention of ever acting on?

Update: Paypal just copped it as well. I'm reclaiming my inbox and nobody is safe!

Friday, January 25, 2008

Carts and Horses; Forrester's POST Methodology

The second anyone says the "M" word to me, my eyes roll back in my head and I'm out for the count; call it subjective narcolepsy, some things just cannot hold my attention, no matter how hard they try.

With that in mind it comes as a great surprise that I find myself blogging about Forrester's POST Methodology, a copy of which was sent to me by the equal parts affable and amiable Josh Bernoff, VP and Principal Analyst over at Forrester. It's timing was somewhat ironic, given I had just implemented a strategy that went about things in exactly the opposite direction the POST document suggests. Funnily enough, they got it right (me less so...).

POST stands for People, Objectives, Strategy, Technology and can be broken down in the following ways:

People -Who are the people using our service and what technologies are they currently engaged in?

Objectives - What are our business goals for this audience?

Strategy - How will achieving those business goals change our relationship with this audience?

Technology - What technology best supports the above?

The entire thing is, in hindsight, common sense, but having sat in far too many meetings now where executives decried the need for Facebook applications without any thought process behind it (beyond "Because everyone is doing it!!!"), something like this comes at just the right time.

I have been guilty of this in the past too, having recently implemented a Twitter feed on my company's homepage. Now I can still justify this from a business point of view, that isn't what bothers me. My problem centres around the goals I had for using Twitter. I envisaged a conversation with our users, live support, instant community (just add water). All of these are great, achievable, inherently good things to work towards and we will continue to do so. I left one tiny piece of the puzzle out though, and while perhaps in hindsight I had the OST down pat, it doesn't actually count for anything.

Because our company's audience is still enthralled by Facebook.

Because our company's audience are not at the core of the early adopter segment of digital societies.

Because our company's audience has no fucking idea what Twitter is. Nor do they care (right now).

That may change, it may not. It depends on how Twitter continues to grow, how it evolves, how much sense it makes to people in the coming months. But given the process that POST outlines, I would have noticed straight away that we have two audiences, not one, and the technologies at their core are mobile (SMS) and social networks, heavily skewed towards MySpace and Facebook. Those techs are relevant to both audiences, and while they require different strategies for interaction, it would have meant a more focussed effort on our part.

The advantage with Twitter is it is a low-cost, low-risk strategy to implement; the worst that can happen is nobody in our audience uses it, the best is it achieves everything I had hoped for and more; the upside greatly outweighs the down (hat tip to Nassim for that lesson). We'll still continue on a path of developing strategies in technologies that are yet to be proven (largely because we're able to), but I will personally spend more time in the future identifying the core audience for a project and not get carried away like the "Facebook" execs I derided earlier.

Happens to the best of us I guess...for more advice along this path, check out the method for yourself. Alternatively it is also available in handy book form. These Forrester guys just think of everything.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Meatball Sundae: Coming through your stereo

If I thought I could construct a compelling blog just by repeating his name and linking to his blog I would. As that is likely not the case, instead let me inform some and remind others that Seth Godin is presenting tomorrow (2pm EST, 6am Melbourne time) on his latest book, Meatball Sundae. There is still time to register for the event; I'm looking forward to it so much I appeared at my friend Scott's door at 6am this morning to listen to it. We stood giggling in his kitchen as it dawned on me that I had risen on the wrong day, made funnier only by the fact he himself had gone to do the same two weeks earlier.

...the brightest minds of our generation they say...

Checking your ego at the door

I try to avoid writing about games here as my involvement in the industry now is very much as an outsider. I still keep an eye on the conversations going on though and one that never fails to amaze me is the "code vs. art" debate and how people struggle to get teams talking to each other. You can liken it to "creatives vs. suits" in advertising or "sales vs. anyone not sales" in many other organisations, the song remains the same; a notion of "otherness" is allowed to develop in a team or company and it poisons the culture of that place, pitting people on the same side against each other.

I lead four different teams as Producer while in the games industry, and they were all marked by a feeling of inclusiveness, a notion that we were all in it together. Often it had little do to with the organisation, I distinctly recall a senior artist from another part of the company walking into the room where my team was housed (numbering around 30+ at the time) and remarking that it felt like a different company. Each team I have looked after had that same feeling, and it never took any effort to maintain.

The key is pretty simple: everyone checks their ego at the door. I affectionately called it "the no assholes rule", long before a book of the same name was released, and it gets brought about in a couple ways.

The first is quite simple: hire good people. That statement is a little intangible and open to interpretation though, so I'll clarify: do not hire people you would not be willing to spend 100 hours a week with, because at some point you will. Assuming you have a high enough barrier to entry for your company (be it a programming test, past sales figures, whatever) then all candidates who reach that mark can be judged based on the personality fit for your team. I have passed up programmers who were great on paper because I knew they would either be difficult to work with or not get along with certain team members. It is a very straight forward exercise placing morale above ability; you can learn new skills in a job, but if you're an asshole, you're probably going to stay an asshole.  I should add this has nothing to do with race or culture, my last team had eight different nationalities on it, and we all still catch up whenever I am back in town.

The second is in many ways simpler than the first. As the title to this post says, check your ego at the door. Any industry is rife with stories of senior figures who refused to spend time in the trenches; these teams are without fail mired in low morale and bitterness towards management. I would outline weeks in advance the weeknights (and on occasion weekends) when we would need to work back, but when those days arrived I went from being the team lead to the servant. If your people are working extra hours because of you, you owe it to them to make that stay as comfortable as possible. If it means driving half an hour across town to get a certain meal for someone, so be it. Talk, in that environment, is less than cheap, it is worthless.

Leading by example and showing a willingness to do anything in order to get a project across the line and a team to work together is the only way to ensure different units within a team with each other from day dot. Producers, Group Directors, CEOs, whatever, they all set the tone for the people they are responsible for. Titles (and the egos they stoke) come and go; checking both at the door on a daily basis means you can do the things that matter most. And your team stays talking long after you have left the room.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Path101: Helping those who don't know what to do

I wrote recently about passion, how important I think it is to have it in your life and how it has guided my actions over the years. It's something I place a great deal of emphasis on and  don't think you can really over-state how important I feel it is to have something that gets you out of bed in the morning. So many people I know, regardless of age, have no idea what they want to do or what that thing is that fires them up all on its own; from my young cousins through to my parent's friends, the question of "What d I want to do?" perplexes everyone, and I count myself as fortunate that it has always been crystal clear for me.

A start-up I came across recently that is hoping to answer that question is Path101. Simply put, it is hoping to utilise available technologies (thank you Web 2.0) to help people answer the question of what they want to do. Initially aimed at college students, the plan is to broaden the service as time goes on, and leverage the social web in order to help people make those choices. This centres around something they're calling the "Résumé Genome Project", an idea that you can look at the career paths of people who have similar histories to you and see how they got to where they are, hopefully discovering some opportunities you didn't know were available to you. You can submit your résumé to help them build the database too!

Right now there is little more than a blog available, but they're doing something I haven't seen anyone else try, and with a good deal of heart to it. I can''t wait to see what they come up with.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Indexed; equal parts cute, compelling, unique, now in handy book form!

One of my favourite blogs is Indexed, written drawn by Jessica Hagy. A collection of Venn diagrams (I didn't know they were called that either), she announced today the Indexed book was now available for pre-order. If you're not familiar with her work, Jessica maps humorous scenarios such as the correlation between alcohol and UFO sightings or the path to drunk dialing. It takes less than ten seconds to consume each time she posts one and the fact I get to smile a few time a day at no cost to my good self seems inherently insane, but she is all the more lovely for it. Cover below, pre-order now.

Indexed Book Cover





Thursday, January 17, 2008

The Black Swan pt. 2

I pushed through the end of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan this week, and while I can say I really enjoyed it, by the end the disparaging tone he takes whenever talking about traders or economists wore a little thin. I have no stake in either of those professions, but once a point has been made and an opinion established (neither of which are crucial for the book's central argument), reiterating it at every conceivable opportunity insults the readers who have come along for the ride. OK, we get it Nassim, you don't respect (for the most part) economists and traders, but I didn't pay the price of admission to wade through you settling personal vendettas, that was achieved when I bought your book and not your rival's.

Having said that, there is a lot of value to be gleaned between the book's covers. It rambles in places but the central idea which I've been summing up as (rightly or wrongly, feel free to offer an alternative viewpoint) "the distinction between two sentences: "there is no evidence of black swans" and "there is evidence of no black swans". Whatever issue I take with the author in the above paragraph, I find that idea and the way at which we arrive at those sorts of statements fascinating.

Nassim also hits a couple other great points which are tackled in a much more straight forward fashion in the next book I picked up, Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die. Written by two brothers, Chip and Dan Heath, it explores, well, exactly what it says. Both brothers have spent time as educators in some fashion, and convey their thoughts in indelibly straight forward terms.

The cross-over between the two books comes in the emphasis both place on the power of narrative. As human beings we love a story! We have told them throughout history, sometimes for lessons, all of the time for entertainment. Stories are much more powerful than facts; that notion gets played out every night on the evening news. Made to Stick talks a lot about using that to your advantage, citing screenwriting guru Robert McKee as opposed to a litany of philosophers and thinkers who add limited value without extended research. Nassim attempts to use his own journey as a way of taking the reader through to his point, but an idea that comes up in the first hundred pages of Made to Stick is one he could have benefited from: simplifying a message can give it more impact and not dumb it down.

I'm not even halfway through Made to Stick yet so bear with me on it. I'm already making moves to apply it to my daily work habits though and enjoying the "Clinics" interspersed through the book, an opportunity to apply the thinking you've just learnt. If like me you love learning and hate the classroom, consider this one, so far, indispensable.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Lucky you're with AAMI

Never thought I'd see the day when I blogged about car insurance. As opposed to my experience with Borders last week, this was thoroughly enjoyable, which is incredible considering they're taking me for around $800 over the next 12 months as opposed to the $20 I wanted to spend on a book. Aside from the fact they were the cheapest providers I came across, their tele-sales staff were exceptional. I may have just lucked out and everyone else is the social equivalent of a 90-pound weakling, but Simone, Hannah (from Missouri by way of everywhere) , you got your company a customer for life today. You two are the best marketing hands down I have seen for AAMI; that's really saying something as I used to work on your campaigns.

Lesson: straight forward and enthusiastic communication wins. Every. Single. Time.

Working 2.0

I've been thinking a lot lately about work life and how it has changed and continues to change. It occurred to me recently that, more than anything, I want a job that offers me genuine flexibility. I don't mean able to come in at 9:30 some days, I mean if I want to work from Barcelona one week, San Francisco the next, I want a job that allows me to do that. Save for a few gigs outside of working for one's self, the market isn't flush with that sort of role.

The friends I've shared this idea with all stare back with the same look, the don't make any sudden moves, we're just going to call someone... look. I don't think I'm saying anything new, I'm maybe just simply saying it, and that is the crazy part. But I was heartened to read this piece posted on Mavericks At Work (found via Seth Godin), which I've only just realised is a book (as well as a blog), which I think I'll go track down. The really key take-away from it is a fresh look at working life:
Old version: work hard (for a very long time), achieve success, earn freedom (to retire and do all the things you missed out on while you were working)

New version: find work that affords you freedom = success

This, in hindsight, seems like a no-brainer. What in the above doesn't make sense? It speaks to me profoundly, and to the very things I-only-recently-realised-I-never-knew-but-always-wanted.

The above is backed up in a new book called Why Work Sucks and How To Fix It, written by Cali Ressler and Jody Thompson who developed a working system called ROWE - Results-Only Working Environment. Essentially what they're saying matters is not the hours worked but the productivity of those hours. The Mavericks blog has a more detailed run down, so check that out, and then maybe do like I'm doing and see if Amazon will throw me a 2-for-1 bone on it them.

I think we're on the verge of something really dramatic and wonderful for people who enjoy their jobs but want to be able to enjoy them on their own time. It will take some brave operations to go out on this limb, but the rewards will be worth it. I know my boss reads this from time to time, so, James, how innovative do we want to be?

More on Bluefreeway

Before Hollywood heavyweights arrived at YouTube's gates baying for blood we could have posted a dozen different clips from movies all with bridges out ahead and roads falling apart. Whether a picture is still worth a thousand words or not is one thing, but there is little else in this world like a line from Arnie that can make light of what is really a wholly unpleasant situation for a lot of people employed in Australia's digital media industry.

Simon Chen has some more thoughts on the company today, along with noting that the share price has continued to slide almost 30% since last week, down to 76 cents. For those that missed the news last week, David Smithers resigned from the company after little more than three months on board as a Director. The company has remained fairly quiet since last week's announcement, if anyone would like to share their side of the story, we're all waiting with baited breath.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Web 2.0 - The City

Web 2.0-tropolis

Came across this great image via Maki. The image itself is referenced in a great post on content development and the strategy behind it for your website.

Maki's blog Dosh Dosh may just be my find of the week!

Monday, January 14, 2008

Old dogs and new tricks

Saturday night, after watching No Country For Old Men (great movie, very heavy though), my band of reprobates and I descended on Jimmy Watson’s to down a few bottles of Dry & Dry (dry vermouth, dry ginger ale). One of the crew is a good mate from England who spent many years working in traditional media, think newspapers, Sky TV, etc.

We got into a debate around the future of advertising and entertainment (because on Saturday night we clearly had nothing better to do…), using The Sopranos as a case study. My friend is not old, but older than I, and definitely from a different school thought. He does currently work in marketing though and has lectured at universities on journalism – he is by no means an idiot. With this in mind I was astounded by how little he grasped of the web 2.0 world, convinced that changes in consumer behaviour only came about because traditional advertising and media companies decided to alter the lay of the land.

I initially thought he was taking the piss, but upon further exploration he was deadly serious. His argument centred around a rather bizarre core, stating that if advertisers and media companies didn’t remain in control, then productions such as The Sopranos would simply cease to exist because of a lack of advertising dollars. My point that a market for quality entertainment would forever exist, citing everything from Homer’s Odyssey to Quarterlife seemed to fall on deaf ears; sure levels of production quality are bound to vary from project to project, but people don’t tune in for the lighting, they tune in for compelling characters and stories they see something of themselves in.

My friend’s issues ran deeper than the quality of story-telling though. Once of his fundamental concerns was, essentially, “Who will pay the salaries of the people who book the ads if nobody comes and books the ads?” I told him nobody, because we don’t need the ads, and that seemed to trigger a small nuclear explosion inside his head. In the mind of my educated and intelligent friend, it was inconceivable that ad-centric business models in traditional media would not survive ad infinitum. More than that, he couldn’t conceive of people who weren’t part of these establishments being the ones that changed everything, even though he himself uses things like MySpace and Facebook.

It reminded me of a moment I had a month or so ago on a tram going to work. I was reading RSS feeds on my BlackBerry, everyone else was reading a newspaper; I was the odd one out, but somehow had not removed my head from my ass recently enough for this to come as anything other than a surprise. It is so easy to get lost in the Brave New World of Web2.0 and forget that Facebook is still pretty novel for most, that the things we spend so much time discussing are not even blips on the horizon of the general public.

In the end, I opted to change the subject. After all, it was Saturday night, and my choices were to persist with my ad-hoc oral essay entitled “Everything you know is wrong”, or I could order another round.

Better make it two then…

N.B. For a thought-provoking look at how consumption of media is changing, check out this post on Fred Wilson's blog.

*Update* The inimitable Bob Lefsetz hits the nail on the head.

"It's just like a mini-mall"

Amazing.

Don't think, just click.

(you can thank me later...)

"It's just like a mini-mall"

Amazing.

Don't think, just click.

(you can thank me later...)

Friday, January 11, 2008

Without passion we are nothing

I try to keep this blog free of introspection, philosophising and general ponderance of things not related to marketing, digital strategy and the things that go on around those broad categories. Anything that falls outside of that either remains inside my head or (less frequently than I'd like) winds up on my MySpace blog, a page that for obvious reasons exists to promote my musical endeavours.

Today though I posted a piece on passion, and it was a pleasure to write, flowing effortlessly without much pause for thought. Living life with passion is something I am a big believer in, and it's something more important than marketing or why Facebook is so successful. If you're wondering what it is that really gets you up out of bed each morning, go have a read. Better yet, step away from the computer and take a walk. Without your phone.

Everyone has a quiet voice that comes to them, but not everyone takes the time to listen. That is where you'll find your passion, believe me it is waiting to be heard.

Without passion we are nothing

I try to keep this blog free of introspection, philosophising and general ponderance of things not related to marketing, digital strategy and the things that go on around those broad categories. Anything that falls outside of that either remains inside my head or (less frequently than I'd like) winds up on my MySpace blog, a page that for obvious reasons exists to promote my musical endeavours.

Today though I posted a piece on passion, and it was a pleasure to write, flowing effortlessly without much pause for thought. Living life with passion is something I am a big believer in, and it's something more important than marketing or why Facebook is so successful. If you're wondering what it is that really gets you up out of bed each morning, go have a read. Better yet, step away from the computer and take a walk. Without your phone.

Everyone has a quiet voice that comes to them, but not everyone takes the time to listen. That is where you'll find your passion, believe me it is waiting to be heard.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Seth Godin - The Dip

Last night I bought Seth Godin’s book Dip, and I finished it at lunchtime today. I’m a slow reader, but even then it really only takes two hours to get through and has some really good sound advice that can be applied to almost anything. I was inspired to buy it after I read a blog post (that I now can’t find) in which the writer said the book had changed his life.

Dip concerns itself with quitting, primarily knowing when to quit, and quitting without shame. Seth’s premise is that any activity will have an enjoyable start before a dip sets in, and the key to the dip is figuring out if you’re in a cul-de-sac (and therefore a dead end --> you should quit) or in the dip, which you should lean into (after a sober analysis of the resources required to get you through) and focus on the end result that took you there in the first place. You can find a far better summation at Seth’s own blog, or you can just go right ahead and buy it  (I recommend the latter).

I’d happily send you my own copy, but a friend is getting it whether he likes it or not via a breakfast meeting tomorrow morning.

Seth Godin - The Dip

Last night I bought Seth Godin’s book Dip, and I finished it at lunchtime today. I’m a slow reader, but even then it really only takes two hours to get through and has some really good sound advice that can be applied to almost anything. I was inspired to buy it after I read a blog post (that I now can’t find) in which the writer said the book had changed his life.

Dip concerns itself with quitting, primarily knowing when to quit, and quitting without shame. Seth’s premise is that any activity will have an enjoyable start before a dip sets in, and the key to the dip is figuring out if you’re in a cul-de-sac (and therefore a dead end --> you should quit) or in the dip, which you should lean into (after a sober analysis of the resources required to get you through) and focus on the end result that took you there in the first place. You can find a far better summation at Seth’s own blog, or you can just go right ahead and buy it  (I recommend the latter).

I’d happily send you my own copy, but a friend is getting it whether he likes it or not via a breakfast meeting tomorrow morning.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Ten Rules for Web Startups

I never seem to close Firefox properly and as a result some pages I looked at ages ago keep cropping up. One of those is a post from November 2005 - I know, how could anything in this day and age still be relevant two years on. The post is situated on a blog run by Evan Williams, founder of Obvious Corp who are responsible for a little site you may have heard of.

The post in question is titled "Ten Rules for Web Startups", it's something I go back to and re-read each time I find it loading up. Some of the insights are obvious, some less so, but they're all worth touching back on from time to time, particularly for those of us actually in this space. Careful to appear more of a guru than he is, my favourite is the bonus 11th post:

"#11 (bonus!): Be Wary - Overgeneralized lists of business "rules" are not to be taken too literally. There are exceptions to everything."

The previous 10 points are well worth your time. An added bonus is this more recent article on evaluating new product ideas. Equally worthwhile.

Detours on the Bluefreeway?

Simon Chen over at Eight Black has some interesting news regarding Australian digital media conglomerate Bluefreeway.

"Today, the ASX was advised that one of their Director’s was resigning...the Director in question who threw in the towel was David Smithers, an ex partner and previous Chairman of PriceWaterhouseCoopers, a not too shabby accounting and professional services firm. He also used to be the President of the Australian Institute of Accountants. Oh, and also on the board of Rabobank.

Now I know that there are always 2 sides to the story, but I’d love to hear Mr. Smithers side first. Someone with his experience, wisdom and threshold for corporate pain doesn’t just call it quits after 90 days."

Bluefreeway have been on a buying spree over the past few years, stocking up on a veritable who's who in the Australia media scene. Recently the retail property group Centro ran into trouble due to the cash fueling its acquisition run stemming from the US sub-prime market, I wonder (aloud and with no reason to back it up, pure speculation on my part) if the case here is in any way related.

If, as Simon says, something foul is in play, the fallout will have far reaching consequences.

Strategies for success on Facebook

Came across a great post on Facebook applications and why they do or do not succeed. Rodney Rumford uses a recent campaign by Sony to draw attention to mistakes that are easily avoidable. The shameless plug for his own company is a bit much, but if I were in his shoes I would probably do the same!

"Rule Number One: Brands Need To Understand the Facebook Ecosystem & Why Applications Are Successful."

It's short and well worth the read.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Borders to Amazon "Please take our customers, we don't know what to do with them"

I've just spent the last 10 minutes sitting on the phone, it ringing and recorded messages being played ad nauseum, some kind of old world punishment for wanting to do something as banal as actually enter a brick and mortar bookstore. If it was the mum and dad run place down the road that would be fine, but then again they would be closed by 6pm at the latest, so I should count by (mixed) blessings.

Borders, listen.  I know you're trying to get yourselves sold, but you have to make yourself attractive for that to go down. What patronage you currently enjoy is not going to grow if you do not make it easier for me to transact with you. It should speak volumes that I'm actually willing to go into a store to get what I want and not order it from your friends across the pond. I'm not asking for the bar to be any lower than it was twenty years ago, I want you to pick up the phone when I call. If that is too hard, then I have some unfortunate news regarding your remaining ambitions...

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan

I had thought that when I got to the end of the afore-mentioned book I would review it and post my thoughts on it, however it seems every few pages there are a raft of new ideas, ones that suggest new trains of thought, undo previous ones, and generally beat you over the head should you be caught sleeping. The book itself is more essay than anything else, but I mean that in the best possible way. Personally I had never heard the word vitiate before (it means to reduce or impair the quality of, just FYI...), which is a challenge in itself, but it certainly isn’t the kind of book you start reading if you’re not up for an exchange of big ideas. 

So, rather than wait until the end and try to disseminate what I’ve learned, I thought I would use this blog as a place where I could dump my thoughts for the day, a reading diary and would serve as the notes I’ve taken along the way. I’m not quite half way through, a page into chapter 9. If you haven’t read it yet don’t worry, there aren’t spoilers to be had, and I welcome the thoughts of anyone who cares to share, whether you’ve read the book or not.


The idea that is sticking with me most right now (and that could be because I just finished a chapter on it) is referred to as silent evidence. Taleb uses a myriad of examples of this throughout the chapter, I’ll relay a summation of what gamblers refer to as “beginner’s luck”. Simply put, if a thousand people sit down and start gambling, odds are that one among them will strike it better than any other because of the unpredictability of games like roulette. There will be no rhyme or reason, and 999 people may go back to what they were doing.


That one person though will continue to gamble, convinced their success has been preordained, the silent evidence of the other 999 you won’t find out about, because their experience gave them nothing to share. The notion of beginner's luck exists because you only hear about it from people who experience it, not the vast majority who lose their money and leave, thus giving the false impression that all people who start gambling kick it off with a string of lucky breaks.


In the book, Taleb warns against forming opinions on events based on the evidence directly presented. He is far more concerned with the statistics that aren’t being told. If a drug came out that cured cancer but potentially also killed 1 in 10 people, a doctor would never prescribe it; the potential law suits would make it an untenable position.


A life saved is a statistic; a person hurt is an anecdote.” (pg. 112)


A previous point he had made along those lines was a fictional account of two men flying to New York, one a local, one planning to visit Central Park for the first time. The local gets drunk and regales the visitor with a stor about how his wife’s brother’s co-worker’s 2nd cousin’s nephew had a friend who was mugged and killed in the park, leaving behind a wife and two young children. The visitor could be greeted with a myriad of statistics espousing the safety of walking through the park, but in all likelihood would be consumed with the image of a man lying in the park, bleeding to death, and a family with no husband or father.


As in the cancer-curing drug example above, anecdotes are much more powerful than statistics.


I could cite a dozen more pieces from the book where Taleb paints a compelling argument for the Black Swans, however it really is worth your time reading it yourself. If you want an overview, stay with me over the coming week or so as I move through the rest of it. As I said above you need not have read the book to share your thoughts on the ideas; one of the first points he makes early on is the best and most disruptive ideas often come from people unaware of the rules of the game.


More as it arrives…

Monday, January 7, 2008

Is a picture still worth a thousand words?

Being back home for Christmas is always a great opportunity to look over old family photos and souvenirs, marvelling at days gone by. I did notice though that all the photos consist of people smiling sweetly, or posed shots of the family sent back to Australia from Hong Kong for my grandparents.

The advent of the digital camera has obviously had a huge impact on news media and citizen journalism, but the vast majority of pictures being taken now are goofy shots with friends that are then posted to MySpace/Facebook/Flickr/etc. This got me thinking about the way we document our lives now; with the ability to record so much more, maybe the picture is no longer worth a thousand words.

A great shot can still transport us back to a particular time and place, but a dozen just like it tend to dull the sensation for me. The memories are almost too accessible, and while there is something to be gained from that, are we losing something at the same time? Just a thought...

Friday, January 4, 2008

Australia's new government moves to censor the internet

This has been heavily discussed over the blogosphere over the last few days, but it is worth making sure it receives a necessary amount if the right attention.

In an alarming and disappointing move for a party that swept to power on the popular assessment that the incumbent government had "lost touch", the Rudd Government has announced its intention to censor internet content available to Australians.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is a former diplomat to China and speaks fluent Mandarin which I personally think is a great thing for a modern Australian Prime Minister. But a move like this takes us politically closer to China in the worst possible way. While it will apparently be possible to opt-out of this feature, there is no mention of any additional scrutiny such moves will garner.

Lee Hopkins has more, as do TechCrunch.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Australia vs. India Test, live on Twitter!

Twitter.com/baggygreen

Apparently social media is reaching deeper than I thought...

Figuring out what is wrong (as opposed to what is right)

I was quoted over at Chris Wilson's Fresh Peel in response to a question he asked: what companies really listened in 2007? Facebook cropped up a few times, and while it can be argued they were forced to listen, the outcry against Beacon paled in comparison to the dissent that rose up against the news feed when it was first introduced. Back then Facebook hadn't become the media darling it is now, and cries of injustice on a still-emerging social networking site were treated with the same gravitas that gets associated with stories about property being stolen in virtual worlds. Were it still operating in that same void, personally I think it would have gotten far less attention and been able to go about it's business. Whether or not that is a good thing is up for (continued) discussion, personally if advertising can be distilled down only to things I am actually interested in, then maybe it simply becomes information, and that is fine by me.

There's more to this though. Online strategies are increasingly being formed not around what is right, but what is least wrong. The idea itself is nothing new and gets discussed exhaustively in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan (shameless plug: I'm part way through and thoroughly enjoying it). It's something I encounter in my day job too; the fact of the matter is if you're working in this space you are almost always trying new things. Can I say for certain that "Idea X" is right? No, but I can tell you it is less wrong than "Idea Y".

My thoughts here are well and truly still forming, but the beauty of this medium is you're allowed to share them before they become concrete, in the hope they become something better. At the risk of going out on a limb, I'm going to say for certain that that is right.