Let's get together and do it again

JP Morgan's Imran Khan (different Imran Khan) is tipping online display advertising to grow this year by around 10.5%. Which is obviously massive. He also cites a few trends that seem to be moving the industry away from naff executions - aka the banners that neither you nor I ever click on. Which, let's be honest, is all of them. He is talking though of a trend more towards what Banner Blog exists to share with us, which is great.

That's not what I want to talk about though. In the same article Khan talks about mobile growing 45% (!!!) this year, winding up with $3.2 billion spent on SMS, $253 million in mobile display, and $321 million in mobile search.

A few things:

1. As the mobile platform improves, the notion of display as distinct on mobile from PC will disappear


2. It will however give way to services sensitive to your platform and do other interesting things around location, and device-specific functionality


3. I don't understand what constitutes "mobile search" - maybe someone can explain it to me?


4. Advertisers who invade the phone like they have every other medium are going to get smacked; it's still too personal

Aside from all of this, it's the same Mcluhan-esque mistake (slide 44) made in online advertising where we take what we did before and force it into this new shape because we don't know any better. If anyone truly believes the best way to use a mobile phone is to send people SMSs, they deserve the rapid demise their business will receive.

Frankly it speaks to the lack of vision and general laziness that pervades the entire ad industry. With the simple days of TVCs and print long behind it, rather than thinking about how it can reinvent itself to be relevant in a new era, it consistently mines tired ideas that speak to the silo-mentality of 20th century media.

People, look at foursquare, get in and use it for a few weeks. That, right there, is a perfect storm of local marketing, small business marketing, and mobile. If you do not see it, either try harder, or find a job where you do not need to.

I never said that I told you so

I'm not one to revel in another's misfortune (unless it's James Blunt of course, he's first to go when the revolution comes). I couldn't help but smile however when I got wind of Glenn Wheatley's Stripe radio network having closed its doors in June this year. For those that don't know (and that would seem to be everyone given it has joined Pets.com in the place bad ideas go to die), Stripe was going to be radio you paid $10 a month to access on your mobile phone.

Long time readers may recall me writing about this last July when news of its impending launch first came out. Rather than re-word it, I'm just going to paste what I wrote:

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1. Why would I pay $10 a month for radio on my phone?


2. Particularly me who does not listen to radio at all?


3. Why in an age of increased personalisation will I believe you can satisfy me with someone else’s taste-making?


4. Why create a service that relies on early-adopter up-take when the early-adopters do not listen to radio or value music in pure ones-and-zeroes terms?

Now, I imagine much of the VC money has already been sunk, unfortunate for those involved. If you guys with the money could just begin to understand that broadcasting in a one-to-many model is dying and being replaced with niche-casting and many-to-many, you might have a hope of creating something with lasting value.

This last quote from Programming Director Jarrod Graetz is killer:

“A great advantage of our service is that you don’t need a new device or gadget to hear us. If you’ve got 3G coverage, you can access your favourite music and programs from your (3G) mobile phone, and of course on broadband internet. No ad breaks, less interruptions, more music. We position ourselves as “What you want on radio” because we believe Stripe delivers what Australia wants.”

The bolding is mine (the lack of vision entirely their’s). I may not need a device to hear you, but I have a device anyway, it is called an iPod. It comes with NO interruptions and ONLY my favourite music and programs. See, it doesn’t actually matter if you do serve up what I want on radio, because I don’t want radio.

Ever.

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*ahem* All together now...

TOLD YOU SO!